Giant Killer Index

FA Cup · First Round · 6–9 November 2026

The Giant Killer Index

Where could the biggest FA Cup shocks happen? We rank the underdogs by how rarely clubs in their position have won before.

There are 32 potential upsets this round; history suggests around nine will happen.

All times UK · League tables to 28 October 2026 · Results since 1979/80

The longest shots Just 42 First Round ties since 1979/80 have set clubs five or more divisions apart, and the smaller club went through in only two: Penrith against Chester in 1981 and Bedlington Terriers against Colchester United in 1998. AFC Rushden & Diamonds face that gap at Burton Albion.

Five or more divisions apart
1

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

at Burton Albion · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

8th tier vs 3rd tier · Five divisions apart

1 in 21historical odds
Four divisions apart
2

Alvechurch

at Plymouth Argyle · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

7th tier vs 3rd tier · Four divisions apart

1 in 12historical odds
=3

Cray Wanderers

vs Stockport County · Sun 8 Nov, 2.15pm · TNT Sports 3 & BBC Two

7th tier vs 3rd tier · Four divisions apart

1 in 10historical odds
=3

Stafford Rangers

vs Grimsby Town · Sun 8 Nov, noon · TNT Sports 1

8th tier vs 4th tier · Four divisions apart

1 in 10historical odds
Three divisions apart
=5

Macclesfield

at Mansfield Town · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

6th tier vs 3rd tier · Three divisions apart

1 in 7historical odds
=5

Harborough Town

at Leyton Orient · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

6th tier vs 3rd tier · Three divisions apart

1 in 7historical odds
=5

Worcester City

at Colchester United · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

7th tier vs 4th tier · Three divisions apart

1 in 7historical odds
=5

Marine

at Bradford City · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

6th tier vs 3rd tier · Three divisions apart

1 in 7historical odds
=9

Wimborne Town

vs Crawley Town · Sun 8 Nov, 3pm · TNT Sports 1

7th tier vs 4th tier · Three divisions apart

1 in 6historical odds
=9

Oxford City

vs Leicester City · Fri 6 Nov, 7.45pm · TNT Sports 1

6th tier vs 3rd tier · Three divisions apart

1 in 6historical odds
Two divisions apart
=11

Forest Green Rovers

at Luton Town · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

5th tier vs 3rd tier · Two divisions apart

1 in 4historical odds
=11

Aldershot Town

at Barnsley · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

5th tier vs 3rd tier · Two divisions apart

1 in 4historical odds
=13

Kidderminster Harriers

vs Doncaster Rovers · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

5th tier vs 3rd tier · Two divisions apart

1 in 4historical odds
=13

Hornchurch

vs Blackpool · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

5th tier vs 3rd tier · Two divisions apart

1 in 4historical odds
=13

Guiseley AFC

vs Sutton United · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

7th tier vs 5th tier · Two divisions apart

1 in 4historical odds
=13

Altrincham

vs Notts County · Sat 7 Nov, 5.30pm · TNT Sports 1 & BBC Two

5th tier vs 3rd tier · Two divisions apart

1 in 4historical odds
=13

Boreham Wood

vs Wigan Athletic · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

5th tier vs 3rd tier · Two divisions apart

1 in 4historical odds
One division apart
=18

Exeter City

at Huddersfield Town · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

4th tier vs 3rd tier · One division apart

1 in 3historical odds
=18

Swindon Town

at Milton Keynes Dons · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

4th tier vs 3rd tier · One division apart

1 in 3historical odds
=18

Rotherham United

at Bromley · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

4th tier vs 3rd tier · One division apart

1 in 3historical odds
=18

Yeovil Town

at Chesterfield · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

5th tier vs 4th tier · One division apart

1 in 3historical odds
=18

Barrow AFC

at Gillingham · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

5th tier vs 4th tier · One division apart

1 in 3historical odds
=18

Scunthorpe United

at Port Vale · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

5th tier vs 4th tier · One division apart

1 in 3historical odds
=18

FC Halifax Town

at Cheltenham Town · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

5th tier vs 4th tier · One division apart

1 in 3historical odds
=18

Sholing

at Salisbury · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

7th tier vs 6th tier · One division apart

1 in 3historical odds
=26

Dover Athletic

vs Wealdstone · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

6th tier vs 5th tier · One division apart

1 in 2historical odds
=26

Bristol Rovers

vs Cambridge United · Fri 6 Nov, 7.30pm

4th tier vs 3rd tier · One division apart

1 in 2historical odds
=26

Oldham Athletic AFC

vs Sheffield Wednesday · Sun 8 Nov, 5.15pm · TNT Sports 1

4th tier vs 3rd tier · One division apart

1 in 2historical odds
=26

Accrington Stanley

vs Wycombe Wanderers · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

4th tier vs 3rd tier · One division apart

1 in 2historical odds
=26

Crewe Alexandra

vs AFC Wimbledon · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

4th tier vs 3rd tier · One division apart

1 in 2historical odds
=26

Eastleigh

vs Shrewsbury Town · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

5th tier vs 4th tier · One division apart

1 in 2historical odds
=26

Carlisle United AFC

vs Salford City · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm

5th tier vs 4th tier · One division apart

1 in 2historical odds

How the Index works

We examined 1,448 FA Cup First Round ties between clubs from different divisions since 1979/80.

The Index ranks this year’s potential upsets by their historical likelihood. The bigger the gap between the clubs, the rarer the upset. Playing at home makes a small difference, too.

A 1 in 21 chance means clubs in that position have historically advanced about once in every 21 attempts.

The figures don’t account for current form or league position. They’re a measure of how extraordinary a result would be, not a prediction of what will happen this weekend.

The full method and sources

The history

Every First Round tie from 1979/80 to 2025/26: 1,879 in all. 1,448 are used, the ties between clubs at different levels of the pyramid. Left out: 423 ties between clubs at the same level, three where a club’s level isn’t known, three whose result the sources disagree on, one walkover and one tie awarded after it was played. Earlier seasons can’t be used, because before 1979/80 non-league clubs had no place in a numbered pyramid.

The model

One smooth curve, fitted to all 1,448 ties: a logistic regression on two inputs only, the gap in levels between the clubs (gaps of five or more are treated as five) and whether the lower-level club is at home. Its fitted form is logit p = 0.04 − 0.612 × gap + 0.194 × home. Playing at home multiplies the smaller club’s odds by about 1.21; the 95% range, 0.90 to 1.66, includes no effect at all, so it is kept as a small effect. In a test that predicted each season from 2006/07 using only earlier seasons, this curve came within 0.001 in log loss of the best alternative tried.

Gap	Smaller club away	At home	As 1 in N
1	36.1% (32.2–39.8)	40.7% (36.5–44.2)	1 in 3 / 1 in 2
2	23.4% (20.2–27.1)	27.1% (24.4–29.7)	1 in 4 / 1 in 4
3	14.2% (11.5–18.1)	16.8% (14.0–19.3)	1 in 7 / 1 in 6
4	8.3% (6.0–11.5)	9.9% (7.4–12.5)	1 in 12 / 1 in 10
5+	4.7% (3.1–7.2)	5.6% (3.8–7.9)	1 in 21 / 1 in 18

The ranges in brackets are 95% intervals from refitting the curve on resampled seasons.

The ranking

Ties are ranked by that chance, the rarest upset first. Ties with the same chance share a rank (=3), and their order within it means nothing. League position, form and last season’s finish are not in the number: there are no past league tables in the history yet, so what they add can’t be measured. Ties between clubs at the same level are listed separately, unranked.

Limits

The widest gaps rest on few ties. 42 since 1979/80 at five or more divisions apart, so those chances carry the widest ranges.
No more replays. First Round replays ended after 2023/24, and there were none in 2020/21. Replays favoured the bigger club, usually at home. In the three seasons settled on the day, 36 smaller clubs went through where history predicted 29, from 102 ties. That is suggestive rather than proof, so no adjustment is made, but these chances may run slightly low. The curve is refitted each season.

Sources

Results come from the First Round articles on Wikipedia and are checked against the Football Club History Database, which covers seasons to 2014/15. From 2015/16 the results rest on Wikipedia alone. Club levels come from the same articles and the Football League season articles. Ties and kickoff times come from The FA’s fixture list.

League tables come from the EFL’s and the National League’s own data feeds. The tables below the National League come from Wikipedia, because those leagues’ own sites refused or blocked an automated read. Dates as stated by each source:

EFL League One: 28 October 2026
EFL League Two: 28 October 2026
National League: 28 October 2026
National League North: 27 October 2026
National League South: 28 October 2026
Northern Premier League Premier Division: 27 October 2026 (Wikipedia, secondary)
Northern Premier League Division One Midlands: 27 October 2026 (Wikipedia, secondary)
Northern Premier League Division One West: 27 October 2026 (Wikipedia, secondary)
Southern League Premier Division Central: 27 October 2026 (Wikipedia, secondary)
Southern League Premier Division South: 27 October 2026 (Wikipedia, secondary)
Isthmian League Premier Division: 27 October 2026 (Wikipedia, secondary)

Tables snapshot 20261028T181000Z-initial.

Same-level ties (8), not ranked

Newport County AFC vs Walsall · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm · both 4th tier
Barnet vs Tranmere Rovers · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm · both 4th tier
Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale AFC · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm · both 4th tier
Harrogate Town AFC vs AFC Fylde · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm · both 5th tier
Oxford United vs Stevenage · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm · both 3rd tier
York City vs Northampton Town · Sat 7 Nov, 3pm · both 4th tier
Peterborough United vs Reading · Sat 7 Nov, 8pm · both 3rd tier
Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted · Mon 9 Nov, 7.30pm · both 7th tier