The Belief Index
A weekly snapshot of the EFL Championship.
Identity vs belief score
Round 12
The full division
Ranked by belief score
| # | Club | Belief | Ghost | Weekly Δ | Trust | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Middlesbrough FC
Boro
|
+28.2 | +5.5 | +1.4 | Rising | |
| 2 |
Portsmouth FC
Portsmouth
|
+17.4 | +4.1 | +10.2 | Rising | |
| 3 |
Bolton Wanderers FC
Bolton
|
+14.6 | +3.4 | -12.8 | Stable | |
| 4 |
Birmingham City FC
Birmingham
|
+14.1 | +2.6 | -12.3 | Stable | |
| 5 |
Wrexham AFC
Wrexham
|
+13.1 | +2.7 | -1.0 | Stable | |
| 6 |
Swansea City AFC
Swansea
|
+10.8 | +2.0 | -11.8 | Stable | |
| 7 |
Stoke City FC
Stoke
|
+10.6 | +2.0 | -7.6 | Stable | |
| 8 |
Lincoln City FC
Lincoln
|
+6.5 | +1.3 | +1.2 | Stable | |
| 9 |
Southampton FC
Southampton
|
+5.4 | +0.9 | +1.4 | Stable | |
| 10 |
Cardiff City FC
Cardiff
|
+5.4 | +1.0 | +13.3 | Stable | |
| 11 |
Millwall FC
Millwall
|
+5.3 | +0.8 | -0.9 | Stable | |
| 12 |
Queens Park Rangers FC
QPR
|
+3.1 | +0.6 | +9.3 | Stable | |
|
0.0
below the line, belief works against the club — above it, belief compounds in their favour.
|
||||||
| 13 |
Blackburn Rovers FC
Blackburn
|
-0.9 | -0.2 | +1.7 | Stable | |
| 14 |
West Bromwich Albion FC
West Brom
|
-1.2 | -0.3 | +0.1 | Stable | |
| 15 |
Bristol City FC
Bristol City
|
-5.7 | -0.8 | +3.5 | Fragile | |
| 16 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
Wolves
|
-7.2 | -1.7 | +0.6 | Fragile | |
| 17 |
Derby County FC
Derby
|
-9.9 | -2.3 | +3.5 | Fragile | |
| 18 |
Charlton Athletic FC
Charlton
|
-15.2 | -3.2 | -4.9 | Fragile | |
| 19 |
Sheffield United FC
Sheff Utd
|
-16.2 | -3.6 | +3.7 | Fragile | |
| 20 |
West Ham United FC
West Ham United
|
-22.0 | -4.3 | -12.8 | Fragile | |
| 21 |
Norwich City FC
Norwich
|
-23.8 | -5.0 | +12.6 | Fragile | |
| 22 |
Preston North End FC
Preston NE
|
-27.5 | -6.1 | +3.6 | Crisis | |
| 23 |
Burnley FC
Burnley
|
-30.1 | -7.3 | -1.6 | Crisis | |
| 24 |
Watford FC
Watford
|
-41.6 | -5.8 | -0.9 | Crisis | |
The Belief Index — a Narrative Equity instrument from Grampians.
Read the methodology →
How the Belief Index works
The Belief Index measures accumulated narrative belief around a club — not their league position, not their results, but the degree to which belief is working for or against them. A club can be mid-table and Rising if trust in the project is building. A club can be near the top and Fragile if fans sense it won’t last.
Scores run from −100 to +100. Crossing zero is meaningful. Each week, three components feed the score: Institutional Trust (do fans believe in the people running this club?), Expectation (are they honouring what was predicted of them?), and Performance (what’s actually happening on the pitch?). The Ghost Modifier then amplifies the result based on who the club is — high-inheritance clubs feel failure more acutely; high-miracle clubs feel success more intensely.
The scatter’s x-axis shows club identity: left side are miracle-dominant clubs (Wrexham, Lincoln) where success feels extraordinary; right side are inheritance-dominant clubs (Sheffield United, West Ham) where failure activates historical ghosts. Scores beyond ±100 reflect a decaying event spike.
Scores run from −100 to +100. Crossing zero is meaningful. Each week, three components feed the score: Institutional Trust (do fans believe in the people running this club?), Expectation (are they honouring what was predicted of them?), and Performance (what’s actually happening on the pitch?). The Ghost Modifier then amplifies the result based on who the club is — high-inheritance clubs feel failure more acutely; high-miracle clubs feel success more intensely.
The scatter’s x-axis shows club identity: left side are miracle-dominant clubs (Wrexham, Lincoln) where success feels extraordinary; right side are inheritance-dominant clubs (Sheffield United, West Ham) where failure activates historical ghosts. Scores beyond ±100 reflect a decaying event spike.
Elite
+40 to +100
Near-total belief. History and present aligned.
Rising
+15 to +40
Belief accumulating. Overperformance building credibility.
Stable
−5 to +15
Belief neither accumulating nor eroding.
Fragile
−25 to −5
Doubt entering. Patience shortening.
Crisis
−100 to −25
Structural doubt compounding. Belief has broken down.
Round 12 · 26 October 2026. Scores update each round during the season. Read the full methodology →