The Belief Index
A weekly snapshot of the EFL Championship.
EFL Championship · 2026/27
Identity vs belief score — preseason · round 0
Active event
Full division — ranked by belief score
| Club | Belief | Ghost Mod | Weekly Δ | Trust | Band | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Wrexham AFC
Wrexham
|
+21.3 | +4.4 | — | Rising | |
| 2 |
Middlesbrough FC
Boro
|
+19.7 | +3.9 | — | Rising | |
| 3 |
Millwall FC
Millwall
|
+15.6 | +2.4 | — | Rising | |
| 4 |
Birmingham City FC
Birmingham
|
+14.4 | +2.6 | — | Stable | |
| 5 |
Derby County FC
Derby
|
+13.2 | +2.7 | — | Stable | |
| 6 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
Wolves
|
+4.9 | +1.0 | — | Stable | |
| 7 |
Burnley FC
Burnley
|
+1.5 | +0.3 | — | Stable | |
| 8 |
Lincoln City FC
Lincoln
|
-0.5 | -0.1 | — | Stable | |
| 9 |
Bristol City FC
Bristol City
|
-1.1 | -0.1 | — | Stable | |
| 10 |
Norwich City FC
Norwich
|
-1.3 | -0.3 | — | Stable | |
| 11 |
Bolton Wanderers FC
Bolton
|
-4.2 | -1.0 | — | Stable | |
| 12 |
Sheffield United FC
Sheff Utd
|
-4.3 | -1.0 | — | Stable | |
| 13 |
Stoke City FC
Stoke
|
-4.7 | -1.0 | — | Stable | |
| 14 |
West Ham United FC
West Ham United
|
-6.0 | -1.2 | — | Fragile | |
| 15 |
Southampton FC
Southampton
|
-6.2 | -1.2 | — | Fragile | |
| 16 |
Swansea City AFC
Swansea
|
-6.4 | -1.0 | — | Fragile | |
| 17 |
West Bromwich Albion FC
West Brom
|
-7.0 | -1.7 | — | Fragile | |
| 18 |
Charlton Athletic FC
Charlton
|
-7.2 | -1.5 | — | Fragile | |
| 19 |
Portsmouth FC
Portsmouth
|
-7.2 | -1.8 | — | Fragile | |
| 20 |
Queens Park Rangers FC
QPR
|
-11.1 | -2.2 | — | Fragile | |
| 21 |
Preston North End FC
Preston NE
|
-11.3 | -2.5 | — | Fragile | |
| 22 |
Cardiff City FC
Cardiff
|
-17.9 | -3.6 | — | Fragile | |
| 23 |
Blackburn Rovers FC
Blackburn
|
-24.3 | -5.7 | — | Fragile | |
| 24 |
Watford FC
Watford
|
-25.6 | -3.6 | — | Crisis |
How the Belief Index works
The Belief Index measures accumulated narrative belief around a club — not their league position, not their results, but the degree to which belief is working for or against them. A club can be mid-table and Rising if trust in the project is building. A club can be near the top and Fragile if fans sense it won’t last.
Scores run from −100 to +100. Crossing zero is meaningful. Each week, three components feed the score: Institutional Trust (do fans believe in the people running this club?), Expectation (are they honouring what was predicted of them?), and Performance (what’s actually happening on the pitch?). The Ghost Modifier then amplifies the result based on who the club is — high-inheritance clubs feel failure more acutely; high-miracle clubs feel success more intensely.
The scatter’s x-axis shows club identity: left side are miracle-dominant clubs (Wrexham, Lincoln) where success feels extraordinary; right side are inheritance-dominant clubs (Sheffield United, West Ham) where failure activates historical ghosts. Scores beyond ±100 reflect a decaying event spike.
Scores run from −100 to +100. Crossing zero is meaningful. Each week, three components feed the score: Institutional Trust (do fans believe in the people running this club?), Expectation (are they honouring what was predicted of them?), and Performance (what’s actually happening on the pitch?). The Ghost Modifier then amplifies the result based on who the club is — high-inheritance clubs feel failure more acutely; high-miracle clubs feel success more intensely.
The scatter’s x-axis shows club identity: left side are miracle-dominant clubs (Wrexham, Lincoln) where success feels extraordinary; right side are inheritance-dominant clubs (Sheffield United, West Ham) where failure activates historical ghosts. Scores beyond ±100 reflect a decaying event spike.
Elite
+40 to +100
Near-total belief. History and present aligned.
Rising
+15 to +40
Belief accumulating. Overperformance building credibility.
Stable
−5 to +15
Belief neither accumulating nor eroding.
Fragile
−25 to −5
Doubt entering. Patience shortening.
Crisis
−100 to −25
Structural doubt compounding. Belief has broken down.
Preseason · Round 0 · 17 June 2026. Scores update each round during the season. Read the full methodology →