FA Cup 2026/27 · First Round · Results: The Giant Killer Index

The biggest potential FA Cup upsets, ranked by their historical rarity — and how they turned out.

32
potential upsets: 11
underdogs advanced: ≈9
historically expected

The round’s biggest giant-killing came from Wimborne Town. Ranked joint ninth with a historical chance of 1 in 6, they beat Crawley Town 2–0.

Ranked on 2 November 2026, before the first tie. Results added since, with no rank or chance changed. Ties played 6–9 November 2026.

Five or more divisions apart
1

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

at Burton Albion · 8th tier vs 3rd tier · Five divisions apart

Result: OutLost 0–4

1 in 21historical odds
Four divisions apart
2

Alvechurch

at Plymouth Argyle · 7th tier vs 3rd tier · Four divisions apart

Result: OutLost 0–4

1 in 12historical odds
=3

Cray Wanderers

vs Stockport County · 7th tier vs 3rd tier · Four divisions apart

Result: OutLost 2–3 after extra time

1 in 10historical odds
=3

Stafford Rangers

vs Grimsby Town · 8th tier vs 4th tier · Four divisions apart

Result: OutDrew 3–3, lost 2–3 on penalties

1 in 10historical odds
Three divisions apart
=5

Macclesfield

at Mansfield Town · 6th tier vs 3rd tier · Three divisions apart

Result: OutLost 0–3

1 in 7historical odds
=5

Harborough Town

at Leyton Orient · 6th tier vs 3rd tier · Three divisions apart

Result: OutLost 1–5

1 in 7historical odds
=5

Worcester City

at Colchester United · 7th tier vs 4th tier · Three divisions apart

Result: OutLost 0–1

1 in 7historical odds
=5

Marine

at Bradford City · 6th tier vs 3rd tier · Three divisions apart

Result: OutLost 0–7

1 in 7historical odds
=9

Wimborne Town

vs Crawley Town · 7th tier vs 4th tier · Three divisions apart

Result: UpsetWon 2–0

1 in 6historical odds
=9

Oxford City

vs Leicester City · 6th tier vs 3rd tier · Three divisions apart

Result: OutLost 2–4

1 in 6historical odds
Two divisions apart
=11

Forest Green Rovers

at Luton Town · 5th tier vs 3rd tier · Two divisions apart

Result: OutLost 0–2

1 in 4historical odds
=11

Aldershot Town

at Barnsley · 5th tier vs 3rd tier · Two divisions apart

Result: OutLost 2–7

1 in 4historical odds
=13

Kidderminster Harriers

vs Doncaster Rovers · 5th tier vs 3rd tier · Two divisions apart

Result: UpsetWon 3–0

1 in 4historical odds
=13

Hornchurch

vs Blackpool · 5th tier vs 3rd tier · Two divisions apart

Result: OutLost 1–2 after extra time

1 in 4historical odds
=13

Guiseley AFC

vs Sutton United · 7th tier vs 5th tier · Two divisions apart

Result: UpsetWon 1–0

1 in 4historical odds
=13

Altrincham

vs Notts County · 5th tier vs 3rd tier · Two divisions apart

Result: OutDrew 2–2, lost 2–3 on penalties

1 in 4historical odds
=13

Boreham Wood

vs Wigan Athletic · 5th tier vs 3rd tier · Two divisions apart

Result: OutLost 0–3

1 in 4historical odds
One division apart
=18

Exeter City

at Huddersfield Town · 4th tier vs 3rd tier · One division apart

Result: UpsetWon 2–1

1 in 3historical odds
=18

Swindon Town

at Milton Keynes Dons · 4th tier vs 3rd tier · One division apart

Result: OutLost 1–2

1 in 3historical odds
=18

Rotherham United

at Bromley · 4th tier vs 3rd tier · One division apart

Result: UpsetWon 2–0

1 in 3historical odds
=18

Yeovil Town

at Chesterfield · 5th tier vs 4th tier · One division apart

Result: OutLost 3–4

1 in 3historical odds
=18

Barrow AFC

at Gillingham · 5th tier vs 4th tier · One division apart

Result: UpsetWon 1–0

1 in 3historical odds
=18

Scunthorpe United

at Port Vale · 5th tier vs 4th tier · One division apart

Result: OutLost 2–4

1 in 3historical odds
=18

FC Halifax Town

at Cheltenham Town · 5th tier vs 4th tier · One division apart

Result: OutLost 0–2

1 in 3historical odds
=18

Sholing

at Salisbury · 7th tier vs 6th tier · One division apart

Result: OutLost 0–6

1 in 3historical odds
=26

Dover Athletic

vs Wealdstone · 6th tier vs 5th tier · One division apart

Result: UpsetWon 2–0

1 in 2historical odds
=26

Bristol Rovers

vs Cambridge United · 4th tier vs 3rd tier · One division apart

Result: UpsetWon 2–0

1 in 2historical odds
=26

Oldham Athletic AFC

vs Sheffield Wednesday · 4th tier vs 3rd tier · One division apart

Result: UpsetWon 2–1 after extra time

1 in 2historical odds
=26

Accrington Stanley

vs Wycombe Wanderers · 4th tier vs 3rd tier · One division apart

Result: OutLost 0–2

1 in 2historical odds
=26

Crewe Alexandra

vs AFC Wimbledon · 4th tier vs 3rd tier · One division apart

Result: UpsetWon 2–1

1 in 2historical odds
=26

Eastleigh

vs Shrewsbury Town · 5th tier vs 4th tier · One division apart

Result: OutLost 1–2

1 in 2historical odds
=26

Carlisle United FC

vs Salford City · 5th tier vs 4th tier · One division apart

Result: UpsetWon 1–0

1 in 2historical odds

The round in review

Of 32 ties between clubs from different levels, 11 underdogs went through — against an expected figure of 8.8. That 34.4 per cent share is above the median of 28.0 per cent across 47 seasons since 1979/80; only nine First Rounds in that span produced a higher proportion.

The standout result was Wimborne Town's 2–0 home win over Crawley Town. A level-seven club beating a level-four side three divisions up is rated at 1 in 6 by the Index. Since 1979/80, lower-level clubs at home and three divisions apart have gone through in only 20 of 114 such ties. None of the four clubs facing opponents four or more divisions above them managed it, though Cray Wanderers and Stafford Rangers both came close — losing to Stockport County in extra time and Grimsby Town on penalties respectively.

Home advantage told heavily. Eight of 16 underdogs drawn at home went through, compared with three of 16 away. Five ties needed extra time or penalties, and the higher-level club survived in four of them; only Oldham Athletic AFC, beating Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 after extra time, turned one of those tight finishes in the underdog's favour.

How the Index works

This ranking was published on 2 November 2026, before the first tie kicked off, and the results have been added since without changing any rank or chance.

It ranks each potential upset by how often clubs in that position have gone through in the past: 1,448 FA Cup First Round ties between clubs from different divisions since 1979/80. Only two things set the chance: the gap in divisions between the clubs, and whether the lower-level club is at home.

Current form, league position and the strength of either team play no part. The odds measure how rare a result would be in history; they are not a prediction of the match. A 1 in 21 chance means clubs in that position have gone through about once in every 21 attempts.

The full method and sources

History

Every First Round tie from 1979/80 to 2025/26: 1,879 in all. 1,448 are used, the ties between clubs at different levels of the pyramid. Left out: 423 ties between clubs at the same level, three where a club’s level isn’t known, three whose result the sources disagree on, one walkover and one tie awarded after it was played. Earlier seasons can’t be used, because before 1979/80 non-league clubs had no place in a numbered pyramid.

Model

One smooth curve, fitted to all 1,448 ties: a logistic regression on two inputs only, the gap in levels between the clubs (gaps of five or more are treated as five) and whether the lower-level club is at home. Its fitted form is logit p = 0.04 − 0.612 × gap + 0.194 × home. Playing at home multiplies the smaller club’s odds by about 1.21; the 95% range, 0.90 to 1.66, includes no effect at all, so it is kept as a small effect. In a test that predicted each season from 2006/07 using only earlier seasons, this curve came within 0.001 in log loss of the best alternative tried.

Gap	Smaller club away	At home	As 1 in N
1	36.1% (32.2–39.8)	40.7% (36.5–44.2)	1 in 3 / 1 in 2
2	23.4% (20.2–27.1)	27.1% (24.4–29.7)	1 in 4 / 1 in 4
3	14.2% (11.5–18.1)	16.8% (14.0–19.3)	1 in 7 / 1 in 6
4	8.3% (6.0–11.5)	9.9% (7.4–12.5)	1 in 12 / 1 in 10
5+	4.7% (3.1–7.2)	5.6% (3.8–7.9)	1 in 21 / 1 in 18

The ranges in brackets are 95% intervals from refitting the curve on resampled seasons.

Ranking

Ties are ranked by that chance, the rarest upset first. Ties with the same chance share a rank (=3), and their order within it means nothing. League position, form and last season’s finish are not in the number: there are no past league tables in the history yet, so what they add can’t be measured. Ties between clubs at the same level are listed separately, unranked.

Limits

The widest gaps rest on few ties. 42 since 1979/80 at five or more divisions apart, so those chances carry the widest ranges.
No more replays. First Round replays ended after 2023/24, and there were none in 2020/21. Replays favoured the bigger club, usually at home. In the three seasons settled on the day, 36 smaller clubs went through where history predicted 29, from 102 ties. That is suggestive rather than proof, so no adjustment is made, but these chances may run slightly low. The curve is refitted each season.

Sources

Results come from the First Round articles on Wikipedia and are checked against the Football Club History Database, which covers seasons to 2014/15. From 2015/16 the results rest on Wikipedia alone. Club levels come from the same articles and the Football League season articles. Ties and kickoff times come from The FA’s fixture list.

League tables come from the EFL’s and the National League’s own data feeds. The tables below the National League come from Wikipedia, because those leagues’ own sites refused or blocked an automated read. Dates as stated by each source:

EFL League One: 28 October 2026
EFL League Two: 28 October 2026
National League: 28 October 2026
National League North: 27 October 2026
National League South: 28 October 2026
Northern Premier League Premier Division: 27 October 2026 (Wikipedia, secondary)
Northern Premier League Division One Midlands: 27 October 2026 (Wikipedia, secondary)
Northern Premier League Division One West: 27 October 2026 (Wikipedia, secondary)
Southern League Premier Division Central: 27 October 2026 (Wikipedia, secondary)
Southern League Premier Division South: 27 October 2026 (Wikipedia, secondary)
Isthmian League Premier Division: 27 October 2026 (Wikipedia, secondary)

Tables snapshot 20261028T181000Z-initial.

Where the results come from

Scores, extra time and penalty shoot-outs come from Wikipedia’s FA Cup 2026/27 article (revision 1384746822, read 10 November 2026), a secondary source. Who went through is checked against The FA’s own Second Round fixture list: a result is shown only when the club Wikipedia has winning is in that list and its opponent is not. Anything the two do not settle is marked as still to be confirmed, never guessed.

A club goes through by winning on the day, after extra time or on penalties; there are no replays. An upset is counted only when the lower-level club goes through.

Same-level ties (8), not ranked or counted

Newport County AFC 3–1 Walsall · both 4th tier
Barnet 3–0 Tranmere Rovers · both 4th tier
Fleetwood Town 1–2 Rochdale AFC after extra time · both 4th tier
Harrogate Town AFC 1–4 AFC Fylde · both 5th tier
Oxford United 0–1 Stevenage · both 3rd tier
York City 4–0 Northampton Town · both 4th tier
Peterborough United 0–5 Reading · both 3rd tier
Plymouth Parkway v Berkhamsted · result to be confirmed · both 7th tier